The climate drivers that load the dice on weather, placed where they act, with the major disaster alerts happening under them. Every value is computed from public data, updated daily. Select a marker to open its driver.
Every event in the two ledgers below. Select a marker to jump to its entry.
FEMA declarations by state, with any GDACS alerts in the lower 48.
GDACS orange and red alerts for tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and wildfires active in the last 60 days, and ReliefWeb's current weather and climate disasters. An event both list appears once, with both links.
FEMA major disaster and emergency declarations for weather and climate hazards in the last 90 days, with wildfire grants counted below.
Driver links come later. Each event will be linked to the drivers on an evidence ladder (no established link, co-occurred, consistent with a known pattern, mechanism argued, formally attributed). Links are reviewed by hand before they publish, so none appear yet. The two ledgers are counted separately: U.S. declarations are far more complete than worldwide alerts, so the counts aren't comparable.
Every value on this page is computed from a public source file: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, NCEI and Global Monitoring Laboratory, NASA, NSIDC, the U.S. Drought Monitor, Colorado State University, Rutgers, GDACS and FEMA. Each source is fetched once a day, archived byte for byte with its fetch time and SHA-256 hash, and the board is rebuilt from that archive. Each driver lists the file it was computed from and its hash.
The world ledger combines GDACS alerts with ReliefWeb's list of current and alert disasters (ReliefWeb API, used with an appname ReliefWeb approved for this board), keeping weather and climate hazards only. Events that share a GLIDE number appear once. Each entry links to its GDACS report or ReliefWeb page.
The U.S. ledger lists weather and climate declarations from FEMA's OpenFEMA API (Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 and FEMA Web Disaster Declarations v1), requested once a day with OpenFEMA's agreement. Each entry links to its page on fema.gov, and the ledger shows when the data was retrieved. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data.
Unless a source fixes its own baseline, "normal" means 1991–2020, and percentiles compare the latest value with the same time of year in that period. NOAA's global temperature series use the 20th-century average, as NCEI publishes them.
Not a warning service. For forecasts and warnings, follow your national weather service and local emergency officials.
Data generated 2026-10-22
| Driver | Latest | State | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENSO | +3.3°C | El Niño Advisory · strong on RONI | Weekly Niño 3.4 anomaly, week of Oct 14, 2026 |
| Indian Ocean Dipole | +0.68°C | Positive (threshold ±0.4°C) | Dipole Mode Index, August 2026 · CPC (ERSSTv6, 1991–2020 base) |
| Arctic Oscillation | +1.91 | Positive (7-day mean) | Daily AO index, Oct 20, 2026 · 7-day mean +2.10 |
| North Atlantic Oscillation | +0.52 | Positive (7-day mean) | Daily NAO index, Oct 20, 2026 · 7-day mean +0.98 |
| Pacific–North American pattern | +0.10 | Neutral (7-day mean) | Daily PNA index, Oct 20, 2026 · 7-day mean +0.46 |
| Polar vortex | 18.3 m/s | Near normal for the date · main season Nov–Mar | Zonal-mean wind at 60°N, 10 hPa, Oct 20, 2026 · normal for the date 20.3 m/s |
| U.S. drought | 50.7% | Shrinking (−8.6 pts in 4 weeks) | Share of the contiguous U.S. in drought (D1–D4), map of Oct 20, 2026; 9.4% in extreme or exceptional drought |
| Tropical cyclone energy | 19.2 | Atlantic 17% of normal · NE Pacific 271% · NW Pacific 141% | Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy, 2026 through Oct 22; 1991–2020 normal to date 110.4 |
| Snow cover | 10.5M km² | Below normal (−1.7M km²) | Northern Hemisphere land snow cover, week 40 of 2026; 1991–2020 normal 12.2M km² |
| Global temperature | +1.33°C | 2nd-warmest September on record | Global land and ocean surface temperature, September 2026, vs the 20th-century average |
| Ocean surface temperature | +1.10°C | Warmest September on record | Global ocean surface temperature, September 2026, vs the 20th-century average |
| Carbon dioxide | 426.07 ppm | Highest September in the record · +1.70 ppm on a year ago | Mauna Loa monthly mean, September 2026 (NOAA GML) |
| Sea ice | 6.72M km² | Stale since 2026-10-17 | Arctic sea ice extent, Oct 17, 2026; normal 7.77M km². Antarctic 16.20M km² (normal 18.16) |